WGSAM 2021

WGSAM Terms of Reference (ToRs), 2019-2021

ToR a, Regional updates: Review further progress and deliver key updates on multispecies modelling and ecosystem data analysis contributing to modeling throughout the ICES region

ToR b, Key-runs: Update of key-runs (standardized model runs updated with recent data) of multispecies and ecosystem models for different ICES regions

ToR c, Skill assessment: Establish and apply methods to assess the skill of multispecies models intended for operational advice

ToR d, Multi-model advice: Evaluate methods for generating advice by comparing and/or combining multiple models

ToR e, MSE: Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) methods and applications for mutispecies and ecosystem advice, including evaluating management procedures and estimating biological reference points

WGSAM 2021 Agenda

WGSAM will be held online and by correspondence in 2021 due to the ongoing impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. Meeting plenary sessions will be for 2 hours each day, 3-5 pm Central Europe, 2-4 pm Western Europe, 9-11 am US East Coast.

If necessary, meetings may extend outside these times to finish work and discussions. We will update the group with any changes.

Connection information

Join using computer

Link: https://ices.webex.com/ices/j.php?MTID=m24b8f8f2ffa712020a0fc3d2931a780b

password (if required): 123456

Join by phone

Global call-in numbers:

https://ices.webex.com/ices/globalcallin.php?MTID=me593566fa1b2eb83716b12042b2a7078

Meeting number (access code): 2741 733 3904

For some participants these times are well outside normal work hours (6-8 am on the US West Coast and 2-4 am in New Zealand). Sarah is happy to meet separately later in the day with interested members from those time zones to get your input on issues discussed earlier in the day; please contact Sarah at Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov if this is of interest and we can set something up.

Monday 11 October

Two hours

• Introductions

• Plan for meeting, orientation to sharepoint

• Reporting out on 2019-2021 ToRs: synthesize achievements for each ToR

  • Identify needed summaries from previous years if not on sharepoint (please provide these ASAP!)
  • Collect summaries of this year’s work
  • Assignments to draft a short summary for each ToR by Friday’s plenary
  • List relevant publications 2019-2021

• ICES Code of Conduct

• ToR a Regional Updates Please, maximum 15 minutes for presentations.

  • Pierre-Yves Hernvann: Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace model of the Celtic Sea (ICES VIIe-j)
  • Alexandra Silva: applications of Ecopath with Ecosim in Portugese continental waters
  • Robert Thorpe: IBM model
  • Sean Lucey: Developing a common dataset for multispecies model keyruns using a reproducible workflow in R

Tuesday 12 October

Two hours

• ToR b Key-runs

  • Discussion: timing of key-runs with ICES benchmark assessments
    • Baltic Sea in 2022 for 2023 benchmarks?
    • Other upcoming benchmarks?
    • What is the process for keyruns?
      • Update data only, leave model structure intact?
      • Update multispecies model structure?
      • Multiple models?
      • Who is doing the work?
  • Other potential 2022 key-runs
    • Georges Bank: multiple models
    • Celtic Sea: EwE and ecospace

• ToR c Skill assessment Please, maximum 15 minutes for presentations.

  • Sarah Gaichas and Valerio Bartolino: Skill assessment project update
    • Multispecies simulated dataset for skill assessment in progress
    • Overview of simulated dataset available in mskeyrun R package
  • Howard Townsend: skill in a multispecies production model using mskeyrun simulated data
  • Group Discussion: skill assessment project work planning
    • Initiate model-specific subgroup work with dataset during this week if possible
    • Plan 2021-2022 work in subgroup during this week
      
  • Igor Celic: Testing uncertainty and goodness of fit of dynamic food web models before building scenarios

Wednesday 13 October

Two hours

• Continue as needed to finish any remaining ToR c presentations

  • Mike Spence: skill metric: inverse of uncertainty
  • Robert Thorpe: Mizer hindcast
  • Alex Kempf: Review near final skill assessment paper

• ToR d Multi-model advice Please, maximum 15 minutes for presentations.

  • James Martindale: R package for ensemble modeling
  • Thomas Del Santo O’Neill: Nash equilibrium R package to get reference points for any ecosystem model, and how to adequately get the message of MS models across for decision makers

Thursday 14 October

Two hours

• Continue as needed to finish remaining ToR d presentations

  • Mike Spence: Can we simultaneously adopt a precautionary approach for all fish?: a case study in the North Sea

• ToR e MSE

  • Alfonso Perez-Rodriguez: How important is accuracy of natural mortality in stock assessment? the Flemish Cap case study

• Subgroups review 2019-2021 ToRs synthesis:

  • Current status of each ToR synthesis
  • What is still needed?
  • Continue to draft a short summary for each ToR by Friday’s plenary
  • Continue compiling List relevant publications 2019-2021

• Draft ToRs for upcoming 3 years 2022-2024

Friday 15 October

Two hours

• Finalize report on 2019-2021 3 year ToRs

• Finalize proposed ToRs for upcoming 3 years 2022-2024

• Elect new co-chair

• Plans for next year

  • Interim meetings and work on skill assessment project
  • Timing of 2022 meeting
  • Location of 2022 meeting